Tuesday, October 14, 2014

Map: Where Ebola is likely to go next .

Ebola already reached the US when a patient was diagnosed in Texas on September 30. But where is
the disease likely to go next?
A map from MOBS Lab and Northeastern University shows the risks:

To develop these estimates, researchers used a computer model that tracks the frequency of international traffic to different countries,
the progression of the
disease in already affected countries, and the incubation
time and other aspects of Ebola. The estimates will be
updated as the epidemic continues.

Outside of Africa, the risk is relatively high in the UK and France, but thankfully very low in India and China. The more
advanced health-care systems in the UK and France are much better equipped to deal with an Ebola outbreak, while less advanced systems in
China and particularly India, which also have considerably bigger populations to manage, could struggle to deal with an epidemic.

Peter Piot, who helped discover and name the virus, told the Guardian about his concerns with an outbreak in India:
But an outbreak in
Europe or North
America would quickly be brought under control. I am more worried about the many people from
India who work in
trade or industry in
west Africa. It would
only take one of them
to become infected,
travel to India to visit
relatives during the
virus's incubation
period, and then, once
he becomes sick, go to
a public hospital there.

Doctors and nurses in
India, too, often don't
wear protective gloves.
They would immediately become
infected and spread
the virus.
As Vox's Julia Belluz previously explained, this is one of the
nightmare Ebola scenarios that keeps scientists up at
night. It's good, then, that the chance of Ebola spreading to India and China seems fairly remote.
Source: Vox

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